Just How Rare is a Solar Eclipse?—A Statistical Comparison for the Gambling Mind

Witnessing any eclipse is a rare treat, and total solar eclipses are the rarest of all. Just how rare? Well, you’re a little more likely to witness one at random than win the lottery, but the odds aren’t as different as you might expect.

For those fortunate enough to witness a planetary peep show, the experience often inspires awe and a sense of good fortune. So, it’s no surprise brick-and-mortar casinos located along the path of Monday’s total solar eclipse are hosting viewing parties—gamblers tend to court extra luck.

That said, you’d have to be extraordinarily lucky to catch a glimpse of one without planning and travel. Staying put and without the help of astronomical forecasting, many could spend entire lives watching the sky without ever seeing a total eclipse—or even its sibling, an annular eclipse.

How likely you are to see one in your lifetime depends on where you live. Some spots in the US are due for several in the coming decades. Others won’t see the Sun and Moon line up overhead for many centuries.

Celestial Alignment Rare but Predictable

Using NASA’s definition, an eclipse is an “alignment of celestial bodies so that one is obscured, either partially or totally, by the other.”

A solar eclipse occurs when the new moon travels between the Earth and the Sun, casting its shadow back to Earth. From the ground, the moon seems to blot out the sun—a little or a lot—depending on the viewer’s location and the type of eclipse. If things align just right and the Moon is close enough to the Earth to obscure the Sun completely, that’s a total solar eclipse, the rarest kind.

An annual solar eclipse is similar, but with the Moon a little further away in its orbit. That means its apparent size isn’t enough to block out the Sun entirely. The result is a “ring of fire” around the moon as it passes.

Any kind of solar eclipse is harder to witness than a lunar eclipse—in which the Earth casts a shadow on the Moon. They occur with similar frequency, but every lunar eclipse can be seen from anywhere on Earth as long as the Moon is in the sky. To see a total or annular solar eclipse, you have to be right in the path of the shadow.

These days, we have the technology to predict each eclipse and where you need to be to see it. But, before modern technology, being in the right place at the right time was a matter of luck, and many people would go their whole lives without having it happen to them.

Seeing Random Solar Eclipse Almost Like Lotto Win

To get a handle on just how lucky you’d have to be to witness an eclipse at random, we looked at 4500 years worth of historical eclipses and future forecasts.

The question we asked is:

If you looked up at the sky at a random moment, at a random place in the US, what are the odds there’d be a total or annual solar eclipse happening?

The EclipseWise database covers eclipses from 1499 BC to 3000 AD. Those 4500 years equate to 2.4 billion minutes. For most places in the US, the number of minutes of total or annular eclipse over that period turns out to be around 120 to 130 minutes.

That means that, without the benefit of astronomical projections, if you just looked up at the sky at any random moment, your chances of seeing a total or annular eclipse would be slightly better than 1 in 20 million.

For comparison, the odds of winning the Powerball jackpot are 1 in 292 million. 

So, if you bought 14 Powerball tickets, your odds of winning would be about the same as finding yourself in the path of an eclipse as you leave the store.

Here are some other comparisons:

  • Randomly witnessing an eclipse is less likely than getting dealt five blackjacks in a row but more likely than getting six.
  • Looking up to see an eclipse is about as likely as getting the same result on twenty-five consecutive coin flips.

A Once-in-Five-Lifetimes Opportunity

There are several solar eclipses most years—2.4 on average, with five being the maximum possible. But not all are total eclipses, and each is only visible across a narrow band of the Earth.

Total solar eclipses every 18 months on average. However, whether you get to see the show depends on your location and the path of totality—where the eclipse is 100% visible. Viewers inside the path get the whole show, while those outside only get a partial view or none at all.

Although there are some exceptions, from any one place, a total solar eclipse is only visible about once in 400 years. That makes it an event that occurs about once in five lifetimes, at current US life expectancy.

That’s if you stay put, of course. Most people will have a few opportunities to see one if they’re willing to travel a little. At the bottom of this article, you’ll find a table of upcoming eclipses for the 50 US state capitals, plus DC and San Juan, Puerto Rico.

As you’ll see, some will get snubbed, like Juneau, Phoenix, Honolulu, and Springfield, which won’t see a single total or annular eclipse in the next century. Others will have multiple opportunities. Topping the list is Salt Lake City, Utah. With three eclipses totaling 1105 seconds of total or annular obfuscation, residents are over six times as likely as the average American to encounter one randomly in the coming century.

Solar Eclipses Throughout US History

Prior to the upcoming celestial show, the last time a total solar eclipse blessed the Lower 48 was in 2017. Before that, it was 1979. And it will be 2045 before another total solar eclipse traverses the US from coast to coast.

Although the orbits of the Earth and Moon are predictable, they don’t line up according to a regular pattern. Some places will see clusters of total eclipses during one century, then go several without another. For instance, one section of the southern US that got a show in 2017 will again be in the path of totality for Monday’s eclipse.

By contrast, the last time New Yorkers saw a total solar eclipse in 1925, construction on the Empire State Building had yet to break ground. Additionally, according to the Washington Post, San Diego last experienced a total eclipse of the sun in 1923, while Chicago‘s been dry since 1806. But when it comes to lacking eclipse experiences, folks living near Tuscon, AZ, are America’s unluckiest. The last time a total solar eclipse graced the area was in the year 797.

Despite having an average of about seven total solar eclipses each century, some areas of the US mainland have witnessed as many more. For folks in the Midwest, total solar eclipses are more common. Conversely, the region west of Minneapolis had only four in the last four millennia.

From Bad Omens to Eclipse Viewing Parties

At the very least, each contiguous state and parts of Alaska and Hawaii will experience a partial event during Monday’s approaching solar spectacle. However, destinations along the path of totality between Mexico and Newfoundland will get the VIP show.

According to NASA, the US path starts in Texas and continues through Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine follow. Additionally, tiny parts of Tennessee and Michigan will experience the total eclipse on its way to Eastern Canada and the Atlantic Ocean.

As noted above, several casinos are hosting eclipse viewing parties to celebrate the auspicious celestial event, including the Seneca Niagara Resort & Casino.

Interestingly, while many witnesses in the modern West report feeling awed, lucky, or blessed after experiencing an eclipse, many early people saw eclipses as bad omens. Others have considered an eclipse a symbol of a romantic connection or a lover quarreling. On the other hand, and more fitting for a casino connection, Bohemia’s minors believed an eclipse foretold fortune finding gold.

Despite the mixed mythology, most US online casinos have at least one online slot with “eclipse” in the name. That said, neither of the two we demoed—Lightning Eclipse nor Midnight Eclipse—had much to do with the phenomena beyond their titles.

Total & Annular Solar Eclipses for US State Capitals—Next 100 Years

State City Total/Annular Eclipses in Next 100 Years Total Duration (Seconds) Odds at Any Moment
Alabama Montgomery 2 706 1 in 4.5 million
Alaska Juneau 0 0 Nil
Arizona Phoenix 0 0 Nil
Arkansas Little Rock 2 634 1 in 5.0 million
California Sacramento 1 72 1 in 44 million
Colorado Denver 0 0 Nil
Connecticut Hartford 1 175 1 in 18 million
Delaware Dover 1 542 1 in 5.8 million
Florida Tallahassee 2 614 1 in 5.1 million
Georgia Atlanta 1 340 1 in 9.3 million
Hawaii Honolulu 0 0 Nil
Idaho Boise 2 714 1 in 4.4 million
Iowa Des Moines 1 298 1 in 11 million
Kansas Topeka 0 0 Nil
Kentucky Frankfort 1 152 1 in 21 million
Louisiana Baton Rouge 1 340 1 in 9.3 million
Maine Augusta 0 0 Nil
Maryland Annapolis 1 542 1 in 5.8 million
Massachusetts Boston 1 175 1 in 18 million
Michigan Lansing 2 660 1 in 4.8 million
Minnesota St. Paul 3 707 1 in 4.5 million
Mississippi Jackson 1 366 1 in 8.6 million
Missouri Jefferson City 1 152 1 in 21 million
Montana Helena 0 0 Nil
Nebraska Lincoln 1 298 1 in 11 million
Nevada Carson City 1 72 1 in 44 million
New Hampshire Concord 1 175 1 in 18 million
New Jersey Trenton 1 175 1 in 18 million
New Mexico Santa Fe 1 474 1 in 6.7 million
New York Albany 0 0 Nil
North Carolina Raleigh 1 340 1 in 9.3 million
North Dakota Bismarck 2 791 1 in 4.0 million
Ohio Columbus 2 629 1 in 5.0 million
Oklahoma Oklahoma City 1 366 1 in 8.6 million
Oregon Salem 2 739 1 in 4.3 million
Pennsylvania Harrisburg 0 0 Nil
Rhode Island Providence 1 175 1 in 18 million
South Carolina Columbia 1 340 1 in 9.3 million
South Dakota Pierre 1 227 1 in 14 million
Tennessee Nashville 0 0 Nil
Texas Austin 2 742 1 in 4.3 million
Utah Salt Lake City 3 1105 1 in 2.9 million
Vermont Montpelier 2 579 1 in 5.5 million
Washington Olympia 1 265 1 in 12 million
West Virginia Charlston 1 152 1 in 21 million
Wisconsin Madison 3 958 1 in 3.3 million
Wyoming Cheyenne 0 0 Nil
D.C. Washington 1 542 1 in 5.8 million
Puerto Rico San Juan 0 0 Nil

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Why Slovenia offers a Picture-Perfect Gambling Experience

Imagine sitting at a roulette table, the wheel spinning smoothly as you take in the stunning alpine backdrop through the window. This isn’t your usual casino scene; it’s what you get in Slovenia, a hidden gem in Europe where the charming atmosphere meets the thrill of chance.

Slovenian casinos offer a diverse gambling experience. For a comprehensive guide, check out Casinos Slovenija, and here you will discover the best spots to game in this scenic country. These establishments are wrapped in the country’s natural beauty and historic grandeur, providing an unparalleled experience that goes beyond the games themselves.

Gambling in the Heart of Nature

Within Slovenia’s green landscapes, every casino visit, whether at a physical venue or online via the smartphone in the palm of your hand, becomes an adventure. The country’s scenic casino locations, nestled among lush hills, beside deep blue lakes and within view of snow-capped mountains, make placing bets feel like part of a fairytale. For those who fancy a game of blackjack or a spin of the roulette wheel, the setting cannot be more idyllic.

Casinos such as those found in the heart of the Julian Alps provide not just a game of chance but also a retreat into nature – with every hand dealt, you’re surrounded by the tranquility of the Slovenian countryside. It’s here, against the backdrop of pristine natural wonders, that the allure of casino games truly shines.

The Best of Both Worlds

The casinos in Slovenia are where historic charm meets the allure of the modern gaming experience. Visitors can find themselves walking through the doors of a grand, centuries-old building only to be greeted by the latest gaming technology and a vibrant crowd of enthusiasts.

From grand, palatial spaces that remind you of Europe’s rich gambling history to sleek, contemporary resorts designed for the modern player, Slovenia offers an impressive spectrum of gaming experiences. It’s a crossing of timelines where a traditional game of poker can be enjoyed in the same venue as an animated video slot adventure. A stroll through these historic gambling halls and state-of-the-art complexes is like flipping through the pages of a gambling enthusiast’s dream diary.

Discover Local Games and Global Favorites Online

Slovenia’s online gaming establishments are like a treasure trove of entertainment, hosting an array of games that cater to every taste. For instance, while ‘Casinos Slovenija’ brings together both Slovenian specialties and world-renowned games, roulette – one of the most popular games in the country – remains a staple on most casino platforms.

From novices to seasoned high-rollers, every visitor can find their game of choice, along with a community of players and professionals who make every online session memorable.

A Realm of Luxury awaits Beyond the Tables

It’s not all about pushing luck to its limits – Slovenian casinos offer much more and an enhanced gaming experience. Visitors can enjoy the full palette of five-star luxury: from spa retreats and gourmet restaurants to live music performances and opulent rooms. These venues understand that a truly memorable gambling getaway includes indulgent moments away from the gaming floors.

Whether it’s unwinding in a thermal pool after a lively round of roulette or treating yourself to a world-class meal, the extra touches are what complete the lavish Slovenian casino experience. The vibrant nightlife often extends beyond the gaming areas, with exclusive bars and clubs providing a perfect setting to celebrate victories or shrug off losses in style.

How exactly does online gambling work in Brazil?

The Brazilian gambling industry is about to become regulated. IDnow investigates how the grey market currently works, and some of the dangers of using unregulated gambling platforms.

Brazil effectively banned gambling in 1946; a more-or-less all-encompassing restriction that remained largely in place until 2018, when sports betting was legalized. However, as virtually no regulation was ever implemented, Brazilian players and international gambling platforms have been operating in a somewhat grey area ever since. This is all due to change once Brazilian online gambling regulation is formally approved in the coming weeks. 

The limbo appears to work, at least on the face of it. And at least for international operators. Surprisingly, despite the lack of clear regulation, Brazil still manages to generate over 20% of all global online gambling traffic. 

It is for this reason that the Brazilian authorities have introduced new regulations to help the Brazilian gambling market capture what is viewed as lost revenue (a projected $1.5 billion in 2023) and bring it back within the fold of the Brazilian economy. 

In fact, the projected numbers are likely to be even larger when regulation finally passes, as there are vast swathes of the Brazilian would-be gambling community that are not currently gambling, despite wanting to.

To gamble or not to gamble? That is the Brazilian question.

In 2021, a survey on Brazilian attitudes toward gambling discovered that 39% of Brazilian participants said they didn’t gamble because they felt uncertain of the safety. 

Just over half of all potential players said they would feel more confident playing online if they had more information about the companies. This is understandable as many gambling operators are not very clear about who their owners are, or even the location of their headquarters. 

In the same survey, 51% of participants said they would like to see more player protection mechanisms put in place. Read more opinions from the Brazilian betting community in our blog, ‘How does the Brazilian betting community really feel about upcoming regulations.’ 

Despite operating in the grey, international gambling operators have achieved considerable visibility through advertising on television and the internet, and through sponsorship of Brazilian football clubs. 

However, the wave of publicity and ensuing popularity has raised concerns about the impact of gambling addiction, the growth of scams, and the threat of money laundering.

Wait, so is online gambling legal or illegal in Brazil?

The most obvious question that many have when they see adverts for online gambling platforms but find out online gambling is essentially illegal, is well, how does that work? The answer lies in Law 13.756, which allows operators to offer their services in Brazil if their headquarters are outside of Brazil and there are no physical points of sale. In practice, this law enables bookmakers to use websites, on the condition they are hosted internationally. 

As these websites operate according to the rules of the countries in which they are based, such as Curaçao, the UK or Malta, they are not required to obey Brazilian laws, such as the Consumer Defence Code. This is all set to change when Brazilian regulations are formally passed and implemented. 

This has meant that from 2018 until whenever the regulations finally come into force, international bookmakers have operated with a sort of impunity and without needing to implement fair gaming rules or player protection measures.

What do Brazilian players think about using unregulated gambling platforms?

The Brazilian gaming community is waking up to the realities of dealing with unregulated gambling operators. Common complaints made on social media and forums include users making deposits but being unable to withdraw them, and even stories of players who have had their accounts blocked following a good streak in sports betting or on online casinos. However, there is a growing awareness among the Brazilian betting community that these kinds of scams are not representative of the entire gambling industry, but rather just unreliable websites.  

An upside to the online proliferation of so many negative stories has led to increasing numbers of Brazilian gamblers actively seeking information about the risk of less reliable, unregulated online gambling sites.

Arguments for and against KYC processes in Brazil.

While the vast majority of the Brazilian betting community seem to accept the value of undergoing a KYC process, there are some who have expressed privacy concerns over some operators’ requirements for players to take and send photographs of themselves holding identity documents. Many also fear that when dealing with an international operator, if there was a problem associated with sending documents, for example a data breach, then they would not be able to rely on national legal protection measures
 
A common complaint among international gambling operators is on the difficulty of performing the Brazilian KYC process due to the wide variety and disparity of identity documents in Brazil. For example, each state in Brazil offers slightly different ID cards, which have dates and document numbers in different places, for example. Difficulties surrounding the KYC process has affected some players’ ability to transact and make withdrawals.  

This makes the integration with the Cadastro de Pessoas Fiscias (CPF), a tax number that every Brazilian is issued with, all the more important for identity verification and KYC. 

Brazilian industry insiders say that the implementation of KYC measures to obtain a licence (Read more about ‘Unpacking the complexities of the Brazilian gambling license structure’ here) means more than just following a legal requirement, it will also help operators prevent fraud.

Brazil is almost ready. Are you?

Are you ready to enter the new era of online gambling in Brazil? 

IDnow is unique in its ability to combine geo-specific capabilities like Brazil’s CPF integration, with AML compliant, multi-dimensional identity proofing and fraud prevention solutions – enabling trusted, seamless customer experiences anytime, anywhere. All from one platform, all in real time. 

Read more about our Brazil-ready identity verification services.

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In the grey: So, how exactly does online gambling work in Brazil? 1

Jody Houton
Senior Content Manager at IDnow
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